Ok, money has been tight in the House o' Ben lately and when I find the cash flowing a bit slower than I like my mind invariably drifts to dreams of getting rich quick. This particular instance has presented itself by constant thoughts of gambling, spurred, I'm sure, by the fact that the last time I visited nearby Atlantic City I walked away with $150 in winnings. Unfortunately, I've become convinced that I've figured out a way to play roulette which is "sure to win."
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I had written a long paragraph describing my strategy and why it's impossible to lose. Then I cruised over to Wikipedia and found that the gambling strategy I "discovered" was rather like the Martingale System, which operates on the Gambler's Fallacy. So, I think reading the article sufficiently sobered me that I won't daydream about winning big money in the casinos any time soon, but I'm probably *still* going to play under my system the next time I'm playing roulette. It still seems like your best shot at winning.
Update: Ok, I'm still not entirely convinced. The Martingal System works under the assumption that a game, such as a coin flip, will have odds approximating 50/50. If I'm playing two collumns in roulette I should have a slightly less than 2/3 chance of winning, right? The idea that streaks are not impossible, just unlikely still applies, but it should apply less so because the chances of a streak on half the numbers, say all the red ones, is more likely than a streak on one third of the numbers, say a collumn plus the green zeroes. Someone more versed in math than I (I'm looking at you Noumena) should reply in the comments why this is wrong.
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2 comments:
I know nothing about roulette, and you haven't described your strategy, so I can't do the analysis myself without taking up a bunch of time I don't really have right now. But did you read this part of the Wikipedia entry for Roulette?
Ben I was there to witness this system and I am 100% behind it. I think that we should take a week off from work and put it to the test. In no time we wil be high rollers and the casinos will be throwing comps at us, rooms, meals, women everything. Our lives will be great.
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