September 09, 2004

Electoral Counter Updatea p

We haven't posted any political horserace stuff lately and with all the talk about Bush's post-convention bump I thought it was worth mentioning. Here is the trusty Electoral Vote Predictor, which I've mentioned before and which is based on a number of different polls. Even though this thing IS based on multiple polls, which should increase its accuracy, as with all polling based speculation, take this with a grain of salt but keep in mind that the closer we get to the election the more accurate it becomes for tracking trends.

Anyway, as should be expected, Bush got a bump at the peak of the convention, but that bump has already eroded back to a neck and neck race with a few states coming up a tie as far as the polling is concerned and several more just barely tipped to one candidate or the other.

The point of this post if just to say that if you hear anything about Convention bumps and how good/bad they are for either candidate ignore them. The bumps are temporary and have far more to do with a week straight of press releases, feel good speeches, and media coverage than they have anything to do with convincing the elusive "undecided voter". In the next two months we'll get buried in advertising and campaign stops as well as the debates, so it really could go either way. I tend to think that people are gearing up for a wave of anti-Bush stuff which is just beginning with this flak about his time in Georgia, but we'll see. The Swift Boat thing seemed like one of the Bushies more powerful weapons, but that's already fizzled.


Noumena said...

check that link

MosBen said...

It's not to a porn site is it? Boy, that'd be embarrassing.

Also, fixed...